The hottest market speculation and other factors a

Market speculation and other factors affect where the "sky high" oil price will go

the factors affecting the future oil price trend mainly come from three aspects, namely, market speculation, the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and other factors affecting the supply and consumption of crude oil in the international market

on October 29, affected by factors such as Mexico's production reduction and the continued weakness of the US dollar, the futures price of light crude oil delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in December hit a new record high, It is approaching the "sky high" price of $94 a barrel

at present, in the context of maintaining a fragile balance between supply and demand in the international crude oil market, the factors affecting the future trend of oil prices that can simultaneously reduce fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions mainly come from three aspects, namely, market speculation, the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and other factors affecting the supply and consumption of crude oil in the international market

from the perspective of market speculation, whether Speculative traders take profit taking operations will become an important factor affecting the trend of oil prices

in recent years, as oil prices continue to rise sharply, more and more speculative traders carry huge amounts of money into the crude oil futures market for speculation. If speculative traders take advantage of the relatively high oil price to take profits, the possibility of a fall in oil prices cannot be ruled out. In the second half of last year, after reaching a record high of $78.40 per barrel, oil prices fell all the way below $60 per barrel due to traders' profit taking

from the perspective of the US dollar exchange rate, the weak trend of the US dollar is difficult to reverse in the short term, so the oil price denominated in US dollars is likely to rise further

due to the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the continuous cooling of the housing market, the U.S. economic growth slowed down, and the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the short-term interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75% in September, resulting in the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar recently. The depreciation of the US dollar makes oil prices cheaper than investors who hold euros and other currencies. These investors buy a large number of crude oil futures trading contracts, which has also become one of the factors driving up oil prices

the Federal Reserve will hold a regular monetary policy decision-making meeting from October 30 to 31 with its unique hydraulic buffer device, which greatly improves the service life, stability and safety of the machine. At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may further reduce the short-term interest rate from 4.75% to 4.5% at that time in order to avoid the economy falling into recession. Another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will further depress the dollar exchange rate and provide new support for the rise of oil prices

from the perspective of short-term factors affecting the supply and consumption of international crude oil market, the factors that may push up oil prices include the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, hurricane weather, the approaching peak of winter heating oil consumption in the northern hemisphere, and OPEC's refusal to increase production

however, if affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, the economic growth rate of major global economies such as the United States significantly slows down, resulting in a decline in their crude oil demand, or the global crude oil inventory increases, the rising momentum of oil prices may be restrained. In addition, if the hurricane day actively promotes the use of existing policy channels, gas does not pose a substantial threat to the oil extraction and refining facilities in the United States and Mexico, or the warm winter weather in the northern hemisphere causes the consumption of heating oil to be lower than the level of previous years, these factors may lead to the decline of oil prices

although the factors affecting the trend of oil price are numerous and complex, and it is very difficult to accurately predict the future trend of oil price, market speculation has played an important role in promoting the recent rise in oil price. Therefore, in the short term, what kind of investment strategy a large number of speculative traders will adopt will be the basic focus affecting the trend of oil price

if traders take profit taking operations in line with the bad news about oil prices, oil prices are expected to fall. However, if traders continue to buy a large number of crude oil futures contracts in line with the good news of oil prices, it will be a "very realistic" thing for oil prices to exceed the $100 per barrel mark

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